In “When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973 – 2012” Janet L. Lauritsen, Maribeth L. Rezey and Karen Heimer (2016) analyze the correlation between the choice of data and the validity of studies on the long-term criminological trends. The authors compare the data from National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) along three major themes. First, Lauritsen et al argue that reliance on only the UCR data results in misguided findings. Secondly, the authors argue that trends in property crimes are static regardless of the choice of data. Lastly, the authors suggest a multipronged approach to test validity of whatever data one chooses.

Lauristen et al discuss the reliance on only one source of data in previous studies that sought to establish trends in criminal law. The authors note that prior studies on divergence in the different reports especially the NCVS and UCR have failed to consider a full set of crimes side by side. Instead, those previous studies have focused only on certain kind of crimes over a given period. The trends in nonfatal violence, homicide and hypothesized covariates were therefore studied by the authors to fill in the gap. Considered in this manner, the divergences rest on the fact that the prior researches were inadequate. Additionally, the researchers only chose the UCR on the assumption that it was authentic throughout the period under study. However, this seems to be untrue when viewed in the lenses of research by Lauristen et al.

Secondly, Lauristen et al note that the trends in crimes such as robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle were similar to those from past studies. The choice of data in this case was irrelevant since both the NCVS and UCR yielded the same result for the period between 1973 and 2012. Nonetheless, there are discrepancies between NCVS and UCR on all other nonfatal violence with the exception of robbery. The UCR reports on the nonfatal violence intimate a decrease in the period under study whereas the NCVS indicated a higher rate of such crimes. However, Lauristen et al propose that analysts should consider these discrepancies whenever they analyze criminal trends.

Thirdly, Lauristen et al propose that analysts should develop and implement a multipronged approach. The authors use evidence to show that police practices of handling and recording victims’ complaints were responsible for the strange increase in nonfatal accident. The report cannot therefore be relied on without critically analyzing it. In this particular instance, the authors mitigated the assumption that the UCR data were authentic by juxtaposing the trends in homicide against the trends in rape and aggravated assault. The authors found that the trends for aggravated assault, rape and other violent crimes corresponded to the trends of homicide covered under the NCVS trends. In this way, the validity of the trends in UCR was cured by relying on a separate set of data. Such reliance on alternative source of data therefore demonstrates the necessity of the choice of data in criminological studies.

In conclusion, the authors state that the assumption that the UCR data on violent crimes is more valid than that of homicide cases is faulty. First, the choice of data over a period of time may not remain valid throughout. There are inevitable changes that render the data invalid after some time and that was the case with the UCR report. Secondly, the choice of data in property crimes such as robbery, theft of motor vehicle, and burglary was irrelevant since both the UCR and the NCVR reports had similar findings. Lastly, a multipronged approach adopted by Lauristen et al helps ensure that the sets of data chosen are realistic. However, future research should concentrate on the correlation of sub-national UCR data because some large urban areas have consistent data on nonlethal crimes from UCR and NCVS.

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