Impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1. Introduction

Maritime transport has been one of the vital supply chains making 80 percent of the number of products traded globally as well as whopping 70 percent of the value goods transacted around the world (Orihara & Tsujimoto, 2018, p.782). The increased use of marine transport has come with various challenges such as high fuel use, and greenhouse gas emissions (Trodden et al., 2015, p.75) As such, players in the industry has delved into various ways in which they can use technology to ensure sustainable propulsion and hence reduce emissions and energy consumption. According to Lu et al. (2015, p.18), Some of the mechanisms which have been proposed as useful in sustainable propulsion include innovative propulsion, resistance traction, and ship performance prediction. Apart from greater fuel efficiency, sustainable propulsion has been found to improve comfort through reduced propeller-induced vibrations and noise and reduced wear and tear (Beşikçi et al., 2016, p.393). Despite various studies done on establishing the multiple mechanisms for ensuring sustainable propulsion, only a few have focused on performance prediction as an approach towards sustainable propulsion.

According to the study done by the International Marine Organization (IMO), there are various tools that marine policies adopt to reduce negative impacts of performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in maritime transport (Van Leeuwen and Kern, 2013, p.69). They use long term monitoring to evaluate the relative changes of impacts. However, since the millennium, marine transportation companies and shipping facilities have formulated various performance indicator frameworks that aimed at sustainable performance in the port management. Although these performance indicator frameworks are implemented and administered through performance indicators. The performance indicators for marine vessel owners differ but though include energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, water quality, air quality, and noise at the seaports (Orihara & Tsujimoto, 2018, p.782). The performance indicators also prioritize on the ship and shore-based garbage, port development, dredging operations, and the impacts on local communities. Environmental effects of marine transport have been identified as a significant concern that results from maritime activities in the quest to increase sustainable performance. These impacts include greenhouse effects, air pollution, the release of ballast water containing aquatic invasive species, the release of cargo residues, garbage management, marine-based source of plastic debris, and oil spills from ships (Beşikçi et al., 2016, p.393). All these impacts have consequences to marine lives, and for performance to be sustained, there must be measures enforced to reduce such unbearable outcomes through the adoption of better technologies that not only saves energy but supports performance.

According to Lu et al. (2015, p.18), sustainable propulsion is defined as the act of practicing the improved technological methods in ships that facilitate the good performance of the ships. These good practices are grouped in various categories depending on the rightfulness of the technology that can either reduce pollution or have a positive impact on marine transport. Today, reduction of power within 5 to 40 percent depends on the area of operation as well as the ship type (Zhang et al., 2016, p.1171). These can far better improve the hydraulic performance of different kinds of ships. Companies like APM-Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company), and ONE (Ocean Network Express have devised technologies that improve on sustainable propulsion in their ships. The government can use legislative measures to enhance sustainable propulsion in ships such as providing supportive business environment that has better innovative and technology-supported programs. They can also improve the infrastructural networks by integrating cost-effective public marine transport.

Propulsion is mandatory during marine transport, and therefore, its impacts should be associated with particular effects on marine lives. Innovation comes with challenges such as the recruitment of new staff who have the capability of handling new technology. Beşikçi et al. (2016, p.393) assert that it is imperative that the management of ports ensures that the marine vessel operators have relevant training and desired skills to facilitate performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in maritime transport. These would be achieved by providing prior training to staff before adopting a new set of technologies. Zhang et al. (2016, p.1171), argues that marine vessels are vital in creating pollution associated with health, climate, and environment. There are many improvements to methodologies used to quantify emissions that could make a better understanding of the impacts of marine transport, such as improving marine vessel emission inventory methods. Various scholars continue to devise ways that are capable of reducing emissions and mitigation impacts. These typically focus on enhancing engine efficiency, the promulgation of fuels, transiting away from highly polluting residual fuels to commercially available sources of energy and distillation of alternative usable fuels. The propulsion of water vessels is highly dependent on the type of fuel used. The use of natural gases as transport fuels has been growing steadily over the past decades. These activities are evident in various spheres, including statements by technology providers, public investment in new infrastructures, industrial initiatives, and the emergence of research projects. According to Zhang et al. (2016, p.1171), the driving force of engines in marine transport is the fuel used. Performance prediction on sustainable propulsion is a factor that results from the fuels, and its impacts are very severe to the environment and water living animals.

 1.2. Aims

1. To assess the impact of performance prediction mechanisms that enhance energy efficacy and reduction of emissions.
2. To recommend areas for the adoption of performance prediction in the marine industry to ensure clean shipping.

• To explore technological milestones and innovations that can be adopted in the marine transportation sector to improve Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation.

These aims and objectives of the study will be achieved through qualitative data collected from secondary sources. In specific, various databases and journals will be used to get articles on previous research, which has done on the matter. Additionally, multiple websites for different organizations such as the international maritime organization (IMO) will be used.

1.2.1. Objectives

i.        To explore the extent to which performance prediction has been adopted in the marine transportation industry.

ii.      To assess the impact of performance prediction mechanisms on the enhancement of ships’ energy efficacy and reduction of emissions.

iii.    To recommend areas for the adoption of performance prediction in the marine industry to ensure clean shipping.

 1.3. Research Questions

1. What are the impacts of Performance Prediction mechanisms in the enhancement of ships’ energy efficacy and reduction of emissions?
2. What areas need improvement to enhance Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation?

• How can access to technological milestones and innovations enhance Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation?

The following is the timeline for the proposed research: –

Activity/Event	Timeline
Introduction	Two weeks
Literature Review	Three weeks
Data Collection	Five weeks
Findings and Discussion	Three weeks
Conclusion and Recommendations	Two weeks

Table 1: Timeline for the proposed research

1.4. Methodology

This study proposes to use qualitative and quantitative data collected from both primary and secondary sources by various scholars and articles that are relevant to maritime transportation. Several studies have been conducted to investigate different scenarios that include the future challenges that marine transport may face, the rate at which pollution has been increasing from the propulsion of marine vessel engines, and the operational risk assessment models for marine vessels. Canale et al. (2010, p.1904) examined the sustainability of marine transport through the control of tethered airfoils. Tethered airfoils can provide viable marine transportation when applied with controlled systems. Such articles will aid the researcher in identifying the best control measures that could be taken to enhance sustainable marine transport. The advantage associated with secondary data to be used in this research is that it will save time and will provide guidelines for areas that require improvements in maritime transportation (Zhang et al., 2016, p.1171).

 1.5. Research Significance and Justification

This research will be very significant to various factions that affect marine transport. One of those impacts that the marine transportation system that has struggled to address are the impacts of emissions from propulsions du to marine transportation. Marine lives have faced difficult challenges that threaten their sustainability, and this study aims to address performance prediction in the marine industry to ensure clean shipping. Additionally, the research will benefit the marine transport industry by addressing various methods that can be used to enhance water vessel performance through the use of better batteries that facilitate the conservation of energy during shipping operations. The entire transport industry will benefit through the analysis of the future expected improvements that boost the marine transportation by providing a set of technology and innovation predictions that can enhance of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation.

Moreover, the research will provide recommendations on how to improve Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation. These recommendations can help in reducing the rate of emissions generated from propulsions by water vessel propellers. As such, this study will vital in ensuring not only performance sustainability but also the protection of marine operations that could lead to pollution of water and the environment in specific areas. This research provides a set of factors that sum up to the performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport by giving a clear recommendation on what best suits specific seaports.

 

 

 

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1.  Introduction

This dissertation party gives the research emphasis on the provision of a brief exploration of impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation. Marine transport is the dominant mode of transport in water and concentrates majorly on the use of ships (Raslavičius et al., 2014, p.328). This researcher considered various articles and publications from multiple scholars to accomplish the aims and objectives of the study. For a very long period, marine transport has grown in what could be termed as a perfect correlation with the global economy. As such, Tevené et al. (2018, p.1), asserts that maritime transportation has reacted to many world economic recessions and accessions. In the contemporary world, there are many high-performance ships, skilled specialists and advanced technologies in marine transportation (Senda et al., 2018, p.276). Various global economic activities have been affected by sustainable propulsion performance due to continuous and advanced technologies in the shipping industry that is undergoing many structural changes. The international maritime organization (IMO) has devised several instruments that are aimed at protecting the environment from shipping impacts that result from various impacts causing environmental threats to water and marine lives. The introduction of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation possesses various impacts that can be measured in magnitudes of their effects on the environment as well as to the marine transport sector as a whole (Tevené et al., 2018, p.1). According to the study done by Senda et al. (2018, p.276), the design of the propeller structure determines the speed at which the water vessel travels. In enhancing performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport, the propeller strength is very paramount in contributing to the trips that water vessels made from one seaport to the other. Many factors gear performance, and unless combined efforts in evaluating the most appropriate are made, then performance prediction would be underestimated.

 Performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport is associated with impacts that include engine impacts, fuel consumption, air pollution resulting from emissions of harmful gases from the engines, pollution by chemicals spilling from engine fuels, sewage, and garbage disposal within the sector.  Senda et al. (2018, p.276) argue that there are laws that have been implemented to reduce the impacts of such operations, such as the international legislation to reduce environmental impacts as well as the dangers caused by engine operations in the marine transport sector. Early management of policy tools to reduce the impacts connected to marine transport should be enacted to facilitate long-term changes. However, Raslavičius et al. (2014, p.328), states that marine transport industry companies have established environmental protection measures that are aimed at curbing the effects of performance prediction on sustainable propulsion within the maritime transport industry. Performance indicators are implemented to monitor the quality of air, water quality, greenhouse effects of gas emissions, noise impacts, and energy consumption on local communities, port developments, and dust on shore-based port operations (Allal et al., 2019, p.486). This part of the study majorly describes the impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation, mitigation measures to reduce the impacts, the advantages and disadvantages of the impacts. The study combines various scholarly articles and publications to deliver reliable results for the study.

2.2.  Common Impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion.

Marine transport is the major connecting factor responsible for moving goods worth billions of dollars in a single day through water (Dwivedi et al., 2011, p.4633).  Marine transportation includes cargo-carrying commercial shipping and non-cargo commercial shipping. However, the huge movement of goods across various seaports is associated with both positive and negative impacts. According to Dwivedi et al. (2011, p.4633), these impacts include engine performance, space occupation, environmental impacts such as air and water pollution, greenhouse effects, the release of ballast water containing aquatic invasive species, the release of cargo residues, garbage management, marine-based source of plastic debris and oil spills from ships (Dwivedi et al., 2011, p.4633). These effects are as a result of performance prediction on sustainable propulsion during marine transport.

2.2.1. Reduction in Fuel Consumption

According to Fagiano et al. (2012, p.781), Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) provides the propeller with the ability to run from any part of the power system. The prime mover is combined with the load that ensures a constant supply of power in the vessel. Some vessels leave the propeller operating for ships such as cruise liners and the warship. Offering an ideal platform for integrated full electric systems will save fuel in large quantities. Taking concerns about improving the prime movers and reduction in fuel consumption are the major parts that operate with low fuels (Fagiano et al., 2012, p.781). Combining the intercooler system with recuperated heat changers has the impact of allowing the waste heat to be recovered from the exhaust gas turbines. These provide significant fuel-saving advantages for the entire power system.

Figure 2 showing Gas Turbine Airflow Diagram

Additionally, Fagiano et al. (2012, p.781), states that specific material challenges in such a system are the very aggressive thermal exposure that the combustor experiences and the manufacturing and lifting challenges associated with the production of the high-temperature heat exchanger operating in the exhaust gas stream.  Developments in recuperated design and manufacturing technology are critical to ensuring that this type of technology is affordable on a wider range of vessels.

2.2.2. Better Use of Space

Propeller space is very crucial when it comes to performance prediction in propulsion on marine transportation (Senda et al., 2018, p.276). Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) is a concern that lies at the heart of the electric cruiser ship or the warships. Ship’s propellers are driven by electric motors that power to the entire ship without any default. Integrating the propeller and the power system yields maximum benefits resulting from only one electrical power source compared to non-integrated power systems.  According to Senda et al. (2018, p.276), the major impact of the integrated full electric propulsion is the layout that provides shaft lines. The most effective part of this system is the preservation of space, which is desirable, especially in the warships. Where else Fagiano et al. (2012, p.781), affirms that the increased current carrying capability of high-temperature superconducting materials, replacing bulky copper windings, combined with avoiding the need for iron to carry the magnetic flux, has significant potential for the development of high torque density electric motors.  Fivefold improvements in torque density over conventional motors are claimed for superconducting designs.  This would mean that even the smallest naval vessels could have electric systems. High-temperature superconductors are not the only electrical and magnetic material developments making an impact in marine propulsion.  The benefits of superconductivity are still accompanied by the disadvantages of the attendant cooling system, so developments in permanent magnet materials continue to be critical for compact motor and generator technology (Fagiano et al., 2012, p.781).  A 50% improvement in magnet performance reduces machine mass, and typically volume, by around 50% (Senda et al., 2018, p.276). Other requirements include materials to support the reduction in the size of power electronics devices for power conversion.  Examples include improvements in power density and temperature capability for capacitors, which currently occupy around 40% of the converter volume (Senda et al., 2018, p.276). Switching devices that can withstand higher junction temperatures; and better cooling and heatsinking for electrical power components, solutions might include metallic foams (Senda et al., 2018, p.276).

Figure 3 shows the Layout of Mechanical and Electrical Propulsion Systems

2.2.3. Speed and Power

The progressive internationalization of trade and movement of people, goods, and materials through marine is combined with congestion that is generating innovations to enhance fast cargo and passenger vessel movements (Fagiano et al., 2012, p.781). To avoid such congestions on the land and at water points, there is a need to provide stimulus funding to facilitate very speedy vessel developments. The impact of propulsion has for long been increasing in terms of the shipping speed where the relationship between the speed and powers for specific convectional propellers systems require developments. Senda et al. (2018, p.276), adds that more than 95 percent of ships are run by diesel with relatively lower power generated. Marine gas turbines provide prime movers with a higher power to weight combination (YASUKAWA and Ito, 2018, p.27). These combinations are a result of continuous combustion processes. The benefits associated with the modern aero engine parentage are that there is perfect reliability, voyage reliability and support large dispatches. There are excellent emissions performances noted from such continuing aero engine technology developments.

Figure 4 showing Power-to-Weight Ratio: the diagrams of the reciprocating engine and the gas turbine are approximate to scale for the same power level.

2.2.4.  Cost Related Impacts

Talluri et al. (2018, p.1), argues that the challenges associated with developing propulsion solutions for fast vessels are not primarily materials ones.  However, according to Aziz et al. (2019, p.346), many materials and manufacturing issues will be important in continuing to deliver affordable, reliable, and hence profitable propulsions into the future, as well as novel concepts to meet the requirements of new generations of ships. For conventional propulsions such as propellers, the key issues are cost and lead-time reduction.  Whereas, Senda et al. (2018, p.276), asserts that propellers may look quite simple at first glance, almost every propeller on a large naval or commercial vessel is specifically optimized for the hull design with which it operates (Talluri et al., 2018, p.1). To be competitive in this area, it is, therefore, essential to be able to design and make such propellers with short lead-times and at minimum cost, for instance, with as little model testing, iteration, and scrap as possible. This is being made possible by the development of integrated suites of models, from casting models for the huge blades, through materials properties to the product performance and life cycle costs.  In the USA, the Smart propulsion Product Model, SPPM, is being developed by Rolls-Royce with US Navy funding (Talluri et al., 2018, p.1). The SPPM program is designed to develop an integrated environment to link together the software tools used for propulsion design, manufacture and aftermarket support (Talluri et al., 2018, p.1).  The figure below shows how the Smart Product Model, SPM, interfaces with the tools.  The aim is to develop such product models for all major ship equipment and interface them with the ship product model that is being developed, within the same US Navy program, by the shipbuilders.

Figure 5 showing Smart Propulsion Product Model Architecture (Application Programmers Interfaces, APIs, and Software Interfaces).

At the more radical end of the new propulsion development spectrum, alternatives to rotating propulsions continue to be explored.  Biomimetic solutions, where attempts are made to mimic the quiet and efficient propulsion systems of marine vessels, provide some interesting possibilities (Fazal et al., 2011, p.1314).  While such ideas are not new, Talluri et al. (2018, p.1), adds that it may be that the emerging ‘smart materials’ technologies will provide the key to open up this route forward.  Shape memory alloys, by changing shape reversibly as the temperature is raised and lowered, for example, by using controlled electrical heating, could provide the precisely controllable actuation needed to mimic the motion of the tail of a fish.

Figure 6 showing mechanical propulsion in a towing tank

2.3.  Environmental Impacts

The type of fuels used by marine transport vessels includes bunker fuels, gasoline, diesel and unrefined crude oils (Seebens et al., 2016, p.5646). During performance predictions on sustainable propulsion, there are oil spills that land to the water bodies, and they are known to be among the most environmentally damaging disasters on the global marine transport industry. Transport of oil and other petroleum products accounts for 12 percent of oil spills from marine vessels (Seebens et al., 2016, p.5646). Other petroleum products such as cargo that is transported through water and bunker fuels are identified as marine accident influencers. Oil spills that cause harmful accidents on marine transport industry result from human errors and other technology-related failures (Talluri et al., 2018, p.1). Operational discharges are responsible for spilling oil on the water bodies that form an overlapping layer hindering water living animals’ access to safe breathing air. Sometimes these oil spills cause explosions that are dangerous since they cause burns and contamination of the environment. Chemical and physical discharge of oil is that it undergoes weathering dissolution, vitalization, and oxidation that results from various environmental impacts. Wave changes are susceptible to take place due to the water-oil column formed where else, calm conditions facilitate oil slicks to spread all over water surfaces, causing shoreline (Zou et al., 2019, p.1). Disposal of oil products to the water is a cumbersome medium for water sedimentation. Oil slicks have adverse effects on sea birds and marine mammals.

Zou et al. (2019, p.1), adds that oil slicks follow fouling of feathers and skin due to the unacceptable conduct between the water and the birds. Oil harms marine organisms through acute toxicity that has sub-lethal effects reducing the fitness of water living mammals (Zou et al., 2019, p.1). Thicker oil slicks are dangerous for water living mammals because it causes inhalation of toxic petroleum products that has negative effects on the digestive system of animals. Also, Talluri et al. (2018, p.1), reaffirms that there are effects associated with respiratory and circulation systems of mammalian species. Durán-Grados et al. (2018, p.496), explains that sea birds suffer the impacts of oil spillages unreported. For this reason, an estimate of up to ten times of birds may die due to the adverse effects of oil spills. However, those who survive take long dives in search of food and thereby passing through slicks that are absorbed by their feathers and thus fouling. Juvenile stages of fish are at risk of reducing shell thickness and causing poor breading habits. Segments caused by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contaminate common mammal grounds to a greater extent of threating the visual sensitivity of water animals (Durán-Grados et al., 2018, p.496). Previous studies done by scholars show that oil spills from water vessels due to propulsion lead to total collapsing of benthic communities since optimistic species like Polychaeta and the famous nematodes reestablish slicks and dissolve in contaminated water columns throughout their lives.

2.3.1. Air Pollution

Marine shipping-derived air pollution impacts and health of marine lives account for 33 percent of trade-related emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Durán-Grados et al., 2018, p.496). Propulsion being the primary cause of emissions depends on engine efficiency, and the type of fuel used. It is challenging to quantify the emissions increase since convectional pollutants contribute to greenhouse effect derived from fuel combustion. Fuels that are used in marine vessel engines including diesel oil, heavy fuel oil, and marine fuel oil are the most air polluting components within the sector. People’s health is essential, and therefore polluting air that is the only source of oxygen causes severe impacts on the lives of individuals. Zou et al. (2019, p.1), argues that there are many cancer exposing dangers concerned with breathing contaminated air that threatens the lives of people. Emissions of dangerous gases that can cause cancer is not only a threat to health but also the wellbeing of communities, workers in the marine sector, and marine animals. Workers in the marine industry depend majorly on seafood, such as fish. In situations where their seafood are exposed to dangerous air, they turn to be very harmful to people’s health, and this is devastating to communities depending on such seafood for survival (Zou et al., 2019, p.1).

2.3.2. Water Pollution

Water pollution can be termed as a situation where the aquatic lives are threatened and are susceptive to various causes (Canale et al., 2010, p.1904). During marine transport operations, predicting the performance on propulsion is associated with the various process that includes spillage of fuels to water and disposal of corrosive containers that have hazardous impacts on marine lives. A clean living environment is desirable for all living things, and therefore, harming aquatic lives is one way of causing danger to the community. Canale et al. (2010, p.1904), adds that when these aquatic animals die from the impact of water pollution, there are impacts that result in the Nilotic people in those regions. First, they lose their source of employment. Secondly, they lack food for their daily survival, and lastly the economic activities within the marine industry decline.

2.3.3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Greenhouse emissions comprise methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide majorly from marine vessel engines that contribute to anthropogenic air pollution (Bicer and Dincer, 2018, p.1179). Bulk carriers container ships and oil tankers are the main contributing factors to the greenhouse effect. Despite many mitigations to reduce the rate at which greenhouse emissions are emitted by replacing old engine systems, selecting catalytic reduction, and switching to low sulfur fuels, health effects are still noted in the marine transport industry (Dwivedi et al., 2011, p.4633).

Figure 7 showing carbon dioxide gas emission rates from different marine vessels

2.3.4. Sound Pollution

Marine vessels in their operations produce a lot of noise that affects the wellbeing of people as well as the lives of marine animals (Canale et al., 2010, p.1904). The noise produced by the propulsion of marine vessels is bothersome and results in barriers in communication. Without an adequate communications system, many activities would not functions as expected, and therefore, sound pollutions as a result of propulsion are not healthy for people and animals. Noise is termed as any external sound that is not intended to be part of the activities taking place. Fault vessel engines generate sound that is very dangerous to the hearing system of both human and water living animals. This vessel engine noise prevents marine animals from recreating as required and thus reducing their reproduction numbers, which have a negative impact on people’s lively hoods as long as foods from marine animals are concerned. According to the study done by Allal, et al. (2019, p.486), most marine water animals use sound for almost all the aspects of their life, such as predator and hazard avoidance, reproduction, and feeding. Therefore when the underwater is disturbed, their health is affected, and this leads to an unconducive environment for them. Sound pollution impacts greatly the marine lives, including their communications abilities and also impacts the intensity of sound in water, causing a communication breakdown between them. Allal et al. (2019, p.486) add that hearing in marine lives is sensitive to sound, and thus impacting underwater sound can lead to behavioral changes in water, including the swimming direction, respiration, and speed patterns. Physical injuries on marine animals may result in their death or long term stress (Allal et al., 2019, p.486). Sound in most cases is different from noise when the conventional communication systems of marine species are interrupted either on waters above or below the surface; water living species face challenges of survival (Canale et al., 2010, p.1904). Sound for marine animals is fundamental and impacting on it has many effects not only to animals but also to predators and defendants of fish as an economic commodity for trade.

2.3.5. Ballast Water Containing Aquatic Invasive Species

As marine transport increases,  more than 3 billion of ballast water is moved by ships annually. This has a risk of introducing invasive species following the discharge of untreated ships’ ballast water. There are many threats related to global biodiversity that are associated with ballast water exchange at the ports (Durán-Grados et al., 2018, p.496). Ballast water is essential in ensuring water vessel stability, structural integrity, and navigation safety. When these ballast water spills over to mix with clean water, it causes severe effects to the existing species in those spilled areas. To maintain the stability of the water vessels, ballast water is necessary, but its main impact on marine transport is that it assists in transferring water living animals from one region to another. These animals are transferred by sticking to the ballast water, and unintentionally the ships or other water vessels move them up to their destination points (Canale et al., 2010, p.1904). The spread of invasive species in marine transport poses challenges of climatic changes to these animals since some of them have been used to living in freshwaters while others live in salty waters, which is a very complicated situation for survival of these animals. As the reliance on marine goods continues to increase, propulsion impacts continue to grow, describing the quantities released by marine transport vessels. Seebens et al. (2016, p.5646), agrees that climate change has been due to propagule pressure, which forces ballast water and even the seawater to melt, causing uncontrollable shipping traffic. Management of ballast water is thus given priority and needs critical attention during arctic. This becomes susceptible to invasive species due to propagule pressure, which does not only increase arctic but also causes traffic in marine transport (Seebens et al., 2016, p.5646). Management strategies should consider reducing propagule pressure, which is the main cause of the decreasing potential for aquatic invasive species development in some designated water points.

2.3.6. Underwater Noise

Underwater noise has been increased by marine mammals, waves, and marine species. Maritime transportation has been ranked as the significant cause of ambient underwater noise, with the primary source being commercial shipping (Durán-Grados et al., 2018, p.496). Marine water vessels are spatially and temporarily indistinguishable and can significantly impact marine life over long distances. The impact depends on the duration and intensity. Durán-Grados et al. (2018, p.496), asserts that most marine water animals use sound for almost all the aspects of their life, such as predator and hazard avoidance, reproduction, and feeding. Therefore when the underwater is disturbed, their health is affected, and this leads to an unconducive environment for them. Human-made noise caused by propulsions differs from the noise made by ambient underwater pollution. Seebens et al. (2016, p.5646), thinks that the nature of sound that comes out as a result of propulsion is very harmful to mammals and travels at a speed which five times the noise made by natural water. Marine transport ranks among the first causes of the anthropogenic source after explosions and seismic testing. According to Van Leeuwen and Kern (2013, p.69), commercial shipping causes low frequencies in water, reduces the background noise and contributes to large underwater noise. For this reason, water living animals are unable to distinguish between temporary and permanent noise. Underwater noise pollution impacts the marine lives, including long distances greatly and also impacts the intensity of sound in water, causing a communication breakdown between marine species. Durán-Grados et al. (2018, p.496) support that hearing in marine lives is sensitive to noise, and thus impacting underwater noise can lead to behavioral changes in water, including the swimming direction, respiration, and speed patterns. Physical injuries on marine animals may result in their death or long term stress. Additionally, Durán-Grados et al. (2018, p.496) still argue that the short term exposure to noisy environment brings about elicit stress and when repeated for long periods, results in chronic harm, and these greatly influence breeding and mating activities. The concern of this kind of effect is the fact that they impact the whole survival of marine populations leading to non-productive activities for communities depending on seafood.

2.3.7.  Terrestrial Habitat and Marine Ecosystem Impacts

Performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in maritime transport operations poses negative effects on terrestrial habitat and marine ecosystems in different ways (Allal et al., 2019, p.486). Marine transportations are associated with port expansions projects, which could lead to losses in habitats. Habitat conservation is identified among the top causes of environmental pollution. During developments of propulsion reduction in the ports, there is rapid growth seaborne trade that is related to vessel increase in size and these prompts expansion of the harbours. Allal et al. (2019, p.486), goes ahead to argue that construction of new ports for larger vessels results in terrestrial habitats that have a severe effect on the marine ecosystem. Other than expansion of the harbours and ports, there are benthic habitats that are impacted by cargo accumulation and marine ecosystem through the noise, fuel spillage and ballast water discharge. Many ports in the world have devised methods that protect their habitats, biodiversity conservation, and protection of endangered marine species in their expansions and reduction of propulsion for vessels (Seebens et al., 2016, p.5646).

2.4. Management Solutions to Reduce the Negative Impacts of Performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport

According to Van Leeuwen and Kern (2013, p.69), mitigation measures must be adopted to reduce the negative impacts of Performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport. The shipping industry do reviews that address various effects of marine transportation such as awareness, regulations and enforcement, regional and international initiatives as well as technological solutions (Van Leeuwen and Kern, 2013, p.69). Marine transport regulations end enforcement have been applied regionally, internationally, and nationally to prevent effects of maritime transportation. International maritime organization regulations have played a vital row in ensuring a reduction in marine transportation (Allal et al., 2019, p.486). Environmental impacts can be reduced by practicing good marine transport habits that conserve the environment by adopting modern methods that are deemed as good marine transport. Talluri et al. (2018, p.1) assert that adopting current technology is a thing that should not be left behind since change is inevitable, and there is a need to progress from the traditional marine transport vessels to modern vessels with Integrated Full Electric propulsion.

In conclusion, oceans around the world have been impacted by propulsion effects like pollutions generated by ship fuels. Lack of adequate facilities for the reception is a major challenge that ports and ship owners have in common. Awareness among the marine industry is desirable to address the negative impacts of the propulsion of water vessels. Educating marine personnel about shipping matters and management solutions should be adopted to reduce the effects of propulsion. Sustainable propulsion is not only desirable for performance prediction but also provides opportunities for innovation and adoption of present technological issues that are associated with marine vessels. The components of the engine are very important to determine the performance of the propulsion. These should take into account the conductivity of the materials as well as the alloys used to make the materials.  As marine transport is taking an upward direction in system integration, there is need to exploit a broader range of essential modes to reduce congestion on roads and airports through creating a dependable water transport system that will broaden opportunities for the development of new technologies in the marine industry. A diverse selection of the key technologies underpinning marine propulsion developments comes from the materials and manufacturing areas.  Magnetic, electronic and superconducting materials such as complex coatings to resist sulphur oxidation of advanced high-temperature alloys. Memory alloys for biomimetic propulsions’ like integrated design, manufacturing, and materials modeling systems are necessary to reduce cost and lead-time for bespoke marine propulsion products. These are just a few, but most developments have been done on the exciting materials challenges facing the marine propulsion industry in meeting customers’ requirements in the current situation and the future. The methods used to develop the most fuel-efficient use in marine vessels are supposed to be given key priorities in designing the type of engines appropriate for a specific type of ship. Advanced technologies have been sought to improve on the size of the engine and the propeller size that reduces space usage and enhances adequate power supply for the whole powers system of the marine vessel. It is paramount to innovate the current powers sources to Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) to attain the most efficient power usage without incurring high costs that are associated with traditional vessel engines. This chapter has presented the most common views of performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport by analyzing various scholars articles and publications that were found to be reliable in this research.

 

 

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.1. Introduction

According to Wu, Yang, and Liu (2019, p.1), research is a scientific inquiry that aims at describing the major approaches to research designs. It entails a practical approach and the theoretical approach.  Turner et al. (2019, p.1249), asserts that modern researchers have opted to combine the schools of thought in conducting their research. In this section of the dissertations, there will be a systematic analysis of methods used in conducting this research. Particularly, this section comprises of research approach, research design, the research techniques used, data collection, and methods of analysis. In carrying out these specific data analysis, the chapter also covers the reliability and the validity of the data used as well as considering the ethical factors of the data. During this study, there will be the justification of the methods used, the tools applied, and the techniques that are employed in conducting the research. The main objective of this section is to provide an appropriate research strategy that is in line with the research questions provided in the previous sections. Research strategies should fully comply with the nature of the study problem (Bjørkan and Veland, 2019, p.1). The strategy applied in this research assumes the nature of the research questions mentioned in the previous sections, and its focus triangulates with the primary method that used quantitative research and the use of secondary data on qualitative research done by previous scholars.

3.2. Definition of Research

Research is a critical investigation of the concerned problem into precise results that leads to innovation improvement of contemporary knowledge (Stahnisch, 2019, p.32). This research incorporated orderly thoughts, techniques, and actions that aid to obtain scientific knowledge and therefore assisted by inquiry of skills, experimental designs, unbiased collection of data, evaluation, analysis, and interpretation of the final information to make discoveries or findings that can be presented to the beneficiaries of the research. The research process is a logical method used to collate, evaluate, and interpreted collected data facts to aid in understanding a specific phenomenon. Research begins with the identification of the problem, followed by verbalization of the goal of the research, detailed mapping of the research actions, dividing the major problem into small manageable sub-problems (Stahnisch, 2019, p.32). After sub-problems, some assumptions are made to facilitate the analysis of the collected data. These assumptions were made because other factors may interfere with the research process and thus making it ineffective. The research process is cyclical and sometimes helical (Wu, Yang, and Liu, 2019, p.1). Scientific knowledge in this research was acquired using systematic knowledge and not be selective or accidental observation (Wu, Yang, and Liu, 2019, p.1). These ensured that there was logical inclusion of any alternatives that could positively aid in explaining the research findings, and more importantly, the approach employed led to the acquisition of scientific knowledge, which was replicable. All these definitions of research involved questing to understand what is not known; hence, the research helped in questioning what is already known and aimed at new aspects to the Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation.

3.3. The Philosophical Foundations of this Research

According to Sun et al. (2019, p. 012008), philosophy is the source of scientific research, and it can be viewed by physical realm, theories, empirical data, and models that are related to one another. Philosophical opinions influenced the research practices and therefore required to be identified.  However, the methodology used in this research was motivated by the epistemological perspective relative to the reality within the social world where Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation is concerned. Consequently, Sun et al. (2019, p. 012008),  adds that research designs depend on the philosophical perspective and assumptions, such as the decision to employ a quantitative design or an interpretive design. Wu, Yang, and Liu (2019, p.1), argues that the support for the philosophical foundation is purely logical and conceptual and not physical and thus the justification for the structure of the research. Knowing philosophical issues gives the research basis of methodological arguments about the research (Wu, Yang, and Liu, 2019, p.1).

3.3.1. Ontology Perspective

Ontology is the study of anything and everything (Stahnisch, 2019, p.32). It describes the society’s views on whether claims and the assumptions of nature are real or not real. Ontology creates an awareness of an objective reality that exists or only is subject to reality and cannot be changed unless otherwise proved through research (Sun et al., 2019, p. 012008). A philosophical perspective to methodology needs to be considered because it would be impossible to understand the relevance of the research process without it (Wu, Yang, and Liu, 2019, p.1). Therefore Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation is mandatory in maintaining an operation risk-free marine transport system.

3.4.  Research Approach

This research has employed a qualitative approach to analyze data. Secondary data was highly utilized in conducting this research, and therefore, quantification of qualitative data was given high priority during this research. Sun et al. (2019, p. 012008) affirm that research methods have their challenges, and therefore, complementary approaches are used to enable comprehensive research on the Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation. Pragmatic applied was also beneficial in this chapter since comprehensive health, and regulatory safety assessment in exploring oil and gas is key to maintaining a safe environment. The reasons as to why many approaches were applied are because important information would be missed out if a single method is applied. The qualitative approach used together with other reliable sources would hence give substantial reliable data that will aid in conducting this study.

3.5. Research Design

Choosing a study design is one of the most important aspects in research, and it involves the selection of the best design that suits the kind of research in question (Tarazi et al., 2019, p.1619). This study about the Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation chooses to use the systematic review of the past studies that were done by various scholars, which include various papers and case studies to arrive at the most appropriate inference on the study questions that are expected to be answered. Using the secondary data from previous scholars and case studies enables the researcher to critically compare different views and make valid conclusions about the Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation.

3.6. Data Collection

Data collection is the art of gathering the required information that aids in solving research problems or questions that need to be assigned a logical solution (Tran and Haidara, 2019, p.19). It’s very crucial that researchers decide the most appropriate data collection method that best fits the research design.  Tran and Haidara (2019, p.19), argues that the choice of the method used to collect data is highly influenced by various factors that include the cost where applicable, the flexibility of the methods, the coverage area in terms of population and the accuracy of the data. According to the aims and objectives of this study, scholarly articles, as well as publications by accredited by research bodies, were used.

3.7. Data Collection Techniques

In the pragmatic approach of research, qualitative and quantitative approaches were used, and they incorporated the use of documents from case studies. Semi-structured interviews were used from various shipping companies to collect primary data. These were applicable because using semi-structured interviews is easy to explore more information from the responses given by interviewees (Stahnisch, 2019, p.32). Through the exploration of the studies done by previous studies was done to gather enough data that yields reliable results at the end of the study.  According to Ehler, Zaucha, and Gee (2019, p.1), the use of alternative information available on different environmental and health safety bodies from the country was also used to determine how the impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation affects both people and marine mammals. Additionally, analyzing how the studies that involved questions were responded to those studies by the locals has given this research a great sense of the reliability of the data. According to Stahnisch (2019, p.32), the advantages that are associated with secondary data is that comparison can be made to evaluate different findings from different scholars. While on the other hand, Alexander et al. (2019, p.71) state that secondary data used could be biased in favor of some groups of individuals of which this was eliminated by taking into account the approved case studies by the department of the marine transport industry. Documents and records are the major sources of secondary data in this research that assessed the impact of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation. Journals and other books written by scholars during their past study have contributed largely to the marine operations across the globe. These have assisted the researcher in gathering more evidence in the study.

3.8. General Approach

The methodology applied in this study was mentioned in the previous sections. Secondary data applicable for the research project was extracted from various local and international sources that included articles written by various researchers, research publications, books, and reports. The most dominant source is the local and international research publications by various researchers in the international marine transport sector. Any other data source that was found useful in conducting this study was carefully included with strict considerations such as who published the article and for what reason. An extensive study was done to ensure that all-important quotes from the publications are taken care of without bias. Scholarly articles are good sources of information for secondary data. Wu, Yang, and Liu (2019, p.1), asserts that the need for research done by previous scholars should be in line with the current research aims and objectives for secondary data to be reliable.

3.9. Research Strategy

Formulating search strategy, in this case, involved defining the study topic and identifying clearly what the study aims to answer. There was an aspect of breaking down the topic into its constituent smaller concepts with affirming of describing each concept. The study utilized the secondary sources of data as well as any other source that could assist in making inferences. As it was stated in the previous section, the study explored the regulatory frameworks that the government and the companies involved in the marine transport industry. Additionally, the existing literature on health and safety assessment regulatory frameworks were obtained from the government databases to compile this research. Alexander et al. (2019, p.71), affirms that tentative explanations assist the researcher in making sense out of diverse findings of scholars articles. Hence the theory has been used to explain many events that reflect the main objective of the research. Lastly, collecting data assists in deciding which theory best fits reality (Alexander et al., 2019, p.71). However, there is a limitation of the comparison of casual ideas with real observations, and hence, a research instrument that sought to eliminate the barriers were included during the research process.

4.0. Models and Modelling in this Research

This study proposed to explore the impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation. Eddy et al. (2019, p.14) assert that models are cognitive tools that enhance scientific inquiry and, therefore, should be either physical, measurable, or conceptual. A model that reflects Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation should have a clear image of the fragment that reflects reality as understood by those who want to use it (Flannery, Clarke, and McAteer, 2019, p.201). By using the secondary data that was obtained from other sources like publications and books written by researchers turns the model to the theory that explains observed situations.

4.1. Ethical Considerations of the Research

Ethics in research cases are the undertakings that are done without exposing or harming the communities within which the research was done (Hobday et al., 2019, p.1). In research, ethical standards assist in keeping confidentiality of information. Sharing of private information with un-authorized researchers is a criminal offense, and maintaining confidentiality helps to develop for future research. During this study, many ethical standards were observed and put into consideration to do the research to be valid and reliable for future researchers. According to Hobday et al. (2019, p.1), research should ensure a coherent relationship between workers within the industry and other parties involved in the research process.

4.2. Conclusions

The marine transport industry has had many developments that have adopted technological advancements. The methodology used to conduct this study has been discussed in depth in the chapter and also in the previous sections. The justification for the choices made in using the research approach, the research design, and the methods has been clarified throughout the chapter. The data collection process and the advantages of various methods have also been highlighted. The research paradigm strategies and matters related to data reliability and validity have been discussed in this chapter. Additionally, the section has provided the ethical considerations of the research with privacy and information being addressed. Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation has been prioritized in this study. Hence the chapter has also explained how the information relating to Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation data was obtained from scholars who did related studies in the past. Finally, the chapter has given the discussions about the philosophical basis of the research, and the next section of this research will address the analysis of the data that was used to carry out the research. The next chapter of this research gives the results of the study and the discussions derived from the researcher’s findings.

 

 

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1. Introduction

This section of the dissertation gives the results of the data analyzed from difference sources. The research applied the mixed research approach that explored various sources like the secondary data retrieved from different publications and studies done by former scholars. This section provides solutions to the research questions that were mentioned in the previous of the dissertation. Presentations of the impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation are presented in this chapter. Due to the need to address the Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation, various measures have been considered necessary. These measures include integrating the vessel engine to Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP), controlling the environmental impacts by formulating marine operation regulations. Additionally, there are technology-related measures that have been adopted to improve the engine designs of marine vessels as well as the materials used for assembling the engines. Finally, the use of engine fuels has been found to cause mare negative impacts to marine lives, and therefore, better engine fuels with less toxic effects have been examined for marine vessels (Chang et al., 2019, p.46). There are various tools that marine policies adopt to reduce negative impacts of performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in maritime transport (Evrin and Dincer, 2019, p.6919). They use long term monitoring to evaluate the relative changes of impacts. However, Huang et al. (2019, p.48) support that since the millennium, marine transportation companies and shipping facilities have formulated various performance indicators and frameworks that aimed at sustainable performance in port management. Although these performance indicator frameworks are implemented and administered through performance indicators. Therefore, this study focuses on accessing the impacts of Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation, recommending areas of adoption for clean shipping, and exploring the technological milestones and innovations in the marine transport industry.

4.2. Impact of Performance Prediction Mechanisms on the Enhancement of Ships ‘Energy Efficacy and Reduction of Emissions.

Marine operations are highly dependent on the vessels that are commonly used, and one of these vessels is the ship (Huang et al., 2019, p.48). The ship is a vessel that uses a specific source of energy, which drives its movement from one seaport to another. There is a need to improve on the ship’s energy efficacy and reduce emissions from the engine (Wu et al., 2019, p.2911). Some mechanisms can be adequately used to predict such propulsion performance impacts. This research found out that some mechanisms have positive impacts on energy saving while others have negative impacts on a ship in the quest to reduce emissions.

4.2.1. Reduced Fuel Consumption Resulting from Selection of Marine Gas Turbine Material

Huang et al. (2019, p.48), in their study, found out that gas turbines are the components of the marine vessel engine that is responsible for emitting excess gases from the engine. This research found that choosing the best martial part for the gas turbine increases fuel efficacy and reduces the rates of pollution on both air and water. Many of the materials issues in marine gas turbines are the same as those in the aero-engine parents. However, additional requirements arise as a result of the salty environment in which they operate and the presence of sulphur in diesel fuel (Wu et al., 2019, p.2911).  All of the compressor components need to be coated to provide corrosion resistance in the chloride-containing environment, and the engines are washed regularly.  More challenging still is the sulphur corrosion of the hot section parts. One of the prime areas of consideration when selecting materials and coatings for the hot sections of a marine gas turbine is their resistance to sulfidation attack. Its evidenced that sulfidation corrosion, rather than mechanical degradation through creep or fatigue, can be the life-limiting feature for many marine components, thereby impacting critical considerations in equipment selection such as cost of ownership and availability/maintenance requirements.  Sulphur can be present in marine diesel fuels in significant quantities, typically 0.2% to 0.5%, depending on the type and origin of the fuel (Wu et al., 2019, p.2911). The choice of the gas turban material that is less reactive with water saves fuel with great magnitude.

4.2.2. Increased Speed and Power

Speed and power in any transport system are considered very crucial and contributes a large proportion of distances covered by vessels (Saha, Maruf and Hasan, 2019, p.040012). Marine gas turbines provide prime movers with a higher power to weight combination. These combinations are as a result of continuous combustion processes (Wu et al., 2019, p.2911). The benefits associated with the modern aero engine parentage are that there is perfect reliability, voyage reliability, and supports large dispatches. There are excellent emissions performances noted from such continuing aero engine technology developments. These aero engines consume less fuel and provide increased levels of power to vessels giving room for faster speed while on transit.

4.2.2.1. Improved Outboard Propeller System Speed

A propulsion system in the marine vessel is an assembly of various rotary board-driven motion (Huang et al., 2019, p.48). These acts as the most critical propulsion system that produces power that is required to push a propelling ship forward against the resistance of water. The figure below shows a propulsion system in an outboard engine propulsor.

Figure 8 showing a propulsor system on an outboard engine.

These types of propellers have to lead to increased efficiency in fuel consumption as well as improved propulsor system operations. Huang et al. (2019, p.48), supported that the efficiency of a propulsion system is greatly improved by outboard engines that are made of low and high power engines.

4.2.2.2. Improved Propulsion Coefficient

Figure 9 Showing overall propulsive coefficient versus ship speed for different propulsor types

There is a positive relationship between the propulsion coefficient and the speed of the ship that is dependent on the design of the propulsor. Optimization of outboard propulsion has greatly lead to an increase in the speed of the ship, thus saving fuels, time, and cost on marine transport operations. It is sometimes very challenging to determine the functionality of propeller full size in open water, but the revolution rates noted during movement can highly predict the rapidness of the thrust. According to Huang et al. (2019, p.48), marine propellers operating at steady loads use less power compared to propellers operating at unstable loads. These are some of the factors that result in deviations in the speed of the ship and are a cause for excess fuel consumption. It is evidenced that stabilizing the loads increases the propellers’ speed for both large and small ships irrespective of their propeller size and thus saves fuels at increased speeds. Therefore improved propeller coefficient results in improved performance in marine transport.

4.2.3. Reduction in Costs of Maintenance

Maintaining a new device is more economical than an old device. Its evidence that replacing the old engines by better engines reduces the financial burden of marinating the ships (Balcombe et al., 2019, p.72). Many materials and manufacturing issues are important in continuing to deliver affordable, reliable, and hence profitable propulsions, as well as novel concepts to meet the requirements of new generations of ships (Wu et al., 2019, p.2911). Conventional propulsions such as propellers, the key issues are cost and lead-time reduction.  Whereas propellers may look quite simple at first glance, almost every propeller on a large naval or commercial vessel is specifically optimized for the hull design with which it operates, but its maintenance cost is the most useful issue in transportation. For reduced costs, its essential to design and make propellers with short lead-times and at minimum cost, for instance, with as little model testing, iteration, and scrap as possible. This is being made possible by the development of integrated suites of models, from casting models for the huge blades, through materials properties to the product performance and life cycle costs.

4.2.4. Reduction in Environmental Impacts

During performance predictions on sustainable propulsion, there are oil spills that land to the water bodies, and they are known to be among the most environmentally damaging disasters in the global marine transport industry (Huang et al., 2019, p.48). Transport of oil and other petroleum products accounts for 12 percent of oil spills from marine vessels. Other petroleum products such as cargo that is transported through water and bunker fuels are identified as marine accident influencers. Oil spills that cause harmful accidents on marine transport industry result from human errors and other technology-related failures. Reduction of operational discharges is responsible for reducing spills on the water bodies that form an overlapping layer hindering water living animals access to safe breathing air (Shu et al., 2019, p.383). Sometimes these oil spills cause explosions that are dangerous since they cause burns and contamination of the environment. Chemical and physical discharge of oil is that it undergoes weathering dissolution, vitalization, and oxidation that results from various environmental impacts. Wave changes are susceptible to take place due to the water-oil column formed where else, calm conditions facilitate oil slicks to spread all over water surfaces, causing shoreline. Proper disposal of oil products helps in curbing oil slicks have adverse effects on sea birds and marine mammals and thus reducing the negative effects on the environment.

4.2.4.1. Reduction in Air Pollution

Air pollution has been identified as the leading impact of marine operations, where emissions and ballast water disposal are concerned (Shu et al., 2019, p.383). Propulsion being the primary cause of emissions depends on engine efficiency, and the type of fuel used. It is challenging to quantify the emissions increase since convectional pollutants contribute to greenhouse effect derived from fuel combustion. Fuels that are used in marine vessel engines, including diesel oil, heavy fuel oil, and marine fuel oil, are the most air polluting components within the sector. People’s health is essential, and therefore polluting air that is the only source of oxygen causes severe impacts on the lives of individuals. The choice of the best fuel is essential for minimal effects on the environment, especially in terms of reducing air pollution.

4.2.4.2. Reduction in Water Pollution

In marine transport operations, predicting the performance on propulsion is associated with the various process that includes spillage of fuels to water and disposal of corrosive containers that have hazardous impacts on marine lives (Wu et al., 2019, p.2911). A clean living environment is desirable for all living things, and therefore, harming aquatic lives is one way of causing danger to the community. Practicing good marine transport ethics provides aquatic lives with save the environment and also creates innovative opportunities for marine workers. Proper management of ballast water ensures that water living mammals are not transferred to areas where their life is threatened. Ballast water is also responsible for the ship’s stability and taking measures to control it helps in maintain clean shipping practices. These save the marine operators the energy required to replace the ballast water by spilling it on the oceans.

4.2.4.3. Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

According to Chang et al. (2019, p.46), greenhouse emissions comprise methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide majorly from marine vessel engines that contribute to anthropogenic air pollution. Bulk carriers container ships and oil tankers are the main contributing factors to the greenhouse effect. Despite many mitigations to reduce the rate at which greenhouse emissions are emitted, there are operational activities such as replacing old engine systems, selecting catalytic reduction, and switching to low sulfur fuels; health effects are still noted in the marine transport industry. Performance prediction mechanisms create room for the use of environment-friendly fuels that lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Using better fuels has profoundly made a big decrease in the greenhouse emissions that were affecting the environment negatively.

4.2.4.4. Reduction in Sound Pollution

Replacing the old engines in marine vessels helps to reduce the noise produced by the propulsion of marine vessels, which is bothersome and results in barriers in communication (Huang et al., 2019, p.48). Without an adequate communications system, many activities would not functions as expected, and therefore, sound pollutions as a result of propulsion are not healthy to people and animals. Reducing sound pollution is beneficial for marine animals since most marine animals use sound for almost all aspects of their life, such as predator and hazard avoidance, reproduction, and feeding. Therefore when the underwater is disturbed, their health is affected, and this leads to an unconducive environment for them. Sound pollution impacts greatly the marine lives, including their communications abilities and also impacts the intensity of sound in water, causing a communication breakdown between them. Replacing faulty engines that produce such sounds improves the livelihoods of communities within the sea areas in terms of enabling them to have easy access to seafood and thus improving their living standards.

In conclusion, it is found that performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport has the impacts of reduced fuel consumption, enhances better use of space, and leads to increased power and speed. The traditional vessel designs are not fuel-saving, and hence, the adoption of modern vessels comes with improved operational standards. The choice of the materials that are used to make marine vessel turbines is among the most efficient methods of reducing environmental impacts caused by marine transport. The study has explored the areas which require attention to bring more improvements in the marine transport industry. These areas have been identified as engaging the marine crew with continuous training that is in line with the modern methods of conserving the environment as well as the best practices in the marine industry. The study has also identified the use of low Sulphur fuels as another pre-requisite to improved ship performance and reduction of costs. As the marine transport industry continues to gain more prominence, the local, national, and international harbors should devise measures that influence better practices in the marine industry. These better practices are the building stones that can change the huge space ship’s propeller design to smaller size propeller that can be driven by a similar amount of power.

 

 

 

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

            This is the last chapter in this research, which presents the areas that need improvements to enable the marine transport industry to experience better performance predictions on sustainable propulsion. This section also gives the concluding remarks on the overall study with recommendations to what needs to be adopted to improve propulsion impacts on marine vessels.

5.1. Areas for the Adoption of Performance Prediction in the Marine Industry to Ensure Clean Shipping.

Marine industry operations have been continuously developing new technologies that require a broader perception of expertise since it is highly risky to operate in water bodies such as ocean and seaports. Despite the present innovations and advancements in technology, some areas need to be perfect to achieve the best ethical practices in the marine transport industry. However, there have been many challenges that relate to setting up of regulatory frameworks that would find it to be cost-effective. Propulsion is a composite activity that is influenced by various factors that include the propulsor design, materials used to assemble the propulsor, the type and manufacturers of engine fuels used as well as the size of the propulsor. The research recommends that these mentioned factors be adopted with various adjustments sought to solve the severe challenges that occur during marine transport operations.

5.1.1. Propulsor Developments

Some challenges have been associated with the propulsors that affect the performance prediction significantly on sustainable propulsion (Tong, 2019, p.445). These challenges include the cavitation, which is a limiting factor to the speed of propellers in ships. When propellers are driven at high speeds, cavitation begins to accumulate low pressure on the blades up the time when the fast speeds are covered by small bubbles. Continuous damage is experienced on the propeller, and these challenges can be overcome by developing a propulsor that can withstand the fast speed without accumulating pressures.

Figure 10 showing a large cruise vessel and a frigate with the same propulsion power requirements illustrated approximately to scale.

5.1.2. Use of Low Sulphur Fuels

Adopting the use of low sulphur fuels is very important in reducing the levels of greenhouse gas emission in marine transport (Shu et al., 2019, p.383). Fuels are the primary source of energy for engines, and they are exhausted out through turbines. As turbine temperatures rise with increasing power levels and efficiency of aero-engine gas turbines, complex single crystal alloys develop high pressure and counter the intermediate pressure turbine blades.  Such alloys have lower chromium contents and provide additional challenges for marine coatings, which now need to provide both oxidation and sulfidation resistance. Combustion components are exposed to even higher temperatures than those within the turbine.  Wall cooling is critical in reducing material surface temperatures, and this is supplemented by the use of thermal barrier coatings on the component walls. These will reduce the amounts of carbon emitted to the environment and thus creating a risk-free marine operation.

5.1.3. Selecting Non-Corrosive Materials for Turbines

Turbine components were traditionally protected with an alumina coating, highly effective against oxidation (Chang et al., 2019, p.46). In the marine environment, alumina is fluxed away by the Sulphur.  To resist sulfidation, chromium is more effective. However, chromium itself has insufficient stability to be used as a protective coating, so more complex systems must be developed.  Two of the options are the thicker overlay coatings of the form CoNiCrAlY and CoCrAlY and the silicon and chromium-containing variants of the aluminide diffusion coatings (Warzyszynski and Webster, 2019, p.686).  These form a thin chromium silicide surface layer, which is resistant to sulfidation.  The aluminide variants such as Sermaloy J have been used on Rolls-Royce marine gas turbines, avoiding the additional parasitic mass of thicker overlay coatings.

5.1.4. Training Marine Staff on the Need for Clean Shipping

The need for clean shipping is a concern that requires corporate efforts from all directs and, more importantly, the marine staff. Innovation comes with challenges such as the recruitment of new staff who have the capability of handling new technology (Chang et al., 2019, p.46). The management of ports must ensure that the marine vessel operators have relevant training and desired skills to facilitate performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in maritime transport. These would be achieved by providing prior training to staff before adopting a new set of technologies. These trainings have been neglected and left to the marine training institutions only, which they offer knowledge-based studies without considering the environment in which their graduates will work.

5.2. Technological Milestones and Innovations that can be Adopted in the Marine Transportation Sector to Improve Performance Prediction on Sustainable Propulsion in Maritime Transportation.

Technology and innovation are factors that have taken a greater part of life in the contemporary world (Nafari and Mazoyer, 2019, p.84). Adopting new technologies is very important in situations where businesses and communities need to achieve better results in the future. The concentration on the type of innovation that needs to be adopted relies on the type of vessel to use, the fuel to be used by the vessel and the speed of the vessel in comparison to the current ones.

5.2.1. Adoption of Integrated Full Electric Propulsors (IFEP)

Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) is a concern that lies at the heart of the electric cruiser ship or the warships (Campillo et al., 2019, p.1). Ship’s propellers are driven by electric motors that power to the entire ship without any default. Integrating the propeller and the power system yields maximum benefits resulting from only one electrical power source compared to non-integrated power systems. Replacing bulky copper windings, combined with avoiding the need for iron to carry the magnetic flux, has significant potential for the development of high torque density electric motors. Adopting such technologies might be costly in the initial stages, but in the long run, they become cost-effective since no continuing maintenance costs will be incurred.

 5.3. Conclusion

In conclusion, performance prediction on sustainable propulsion in marine transport has been given the key priorities in this study and the results discussed. It has been found that adopting the newly Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) provides marine transport industry with much more benefits compared to challenges. As marine transport is taking an upward direction in system integration, there is need to exploit a broader range of essential modes to reduce congestion on roads and airports through creating a dependable water transport system that will broaden opportunities for the development of new technologies in the marine industry. A diverse selection of the key technologies underpinning marine propulsion developments comes from the materials and manufacturing areas.  Magnetic, electronic, and superconducting materials such as complex coatings to resist sulphur oxidation of advanced high-temperature alloys. Memory alloys for biomimetic propulsions’ like integrated design, manufacturing, and materials modeling systems are necessary to reduce cost and lead-time for bespoke marine propulsion products. States and the marine industry managements should formulate regulations that ensure that all involved stakeholders in the marine transport take responsibilities in curbing activities that have negative impacts as a result of marine propulsion. Constant maintenance of the bulky copper windings, combined with avoiding the need for iron to carry the magnetic flux, has significant potential for the development of high torque density electric motors. These technologies are costly in the initial stages, but in the long run, they become cost-effective since no continuing maintenance costs will be incurred. Finally, the local, national and international harbours should consider devising modern methods that have relatively no effects on the environment and results in the most efficient performance on sustainable propulsion in marine transport.